CAR reported today that a company that tracks "Phantom Inventory" places the number at 1.7 million up alomst 30% over the prior year's 1.1 million homes. Corelogic counts the amount of "Phantom Inventory" is the number of homes that banks currently hold in inventory but not yet placed on the market including homeowners that are 90 days delinquent on their mortgages. This number represents the a 3.3 month supply at the current rate of sales.
Visible inventory in September of 2009 stood at 3.8 million units. This represents a 7 month supply down from 10 months a year ago. The total unsold inventory which, (I assume) includes short sales and normal sales is estimated to be 5.5 million units relatively flat from last years 5.7 million units. This number represents 11 months supply down a month from the prior year.
According to Corelogic while the numbers appear to be normal and stabilizing, the market inventory will get worse before it will get better.
Showing posts with label Plasant Hill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Plasant Hill. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Home Improvement Rules of Thumb.
On a zillow blog a poster asked about how much to invest in a kitchen remodel. Stan at Brandon Handyman.com, "Realtors_Fix It Guy" posted in response. "Cost of kitchen upgrade should be at or near 1/5th in porportion but not exceeding 25% of total home value... As for a bath redo, stay around 20% overall value divided by number of bathrooms... ie. 2 baths = 10% ea... or 12.5% and 7.5%, etc.
I like this advice it though it provides a very generous range. This rule of thumb I would further advise is for owners who are planning on being in their home more than 5 years. Another poster in the kithcen and bath busess elaborated further.
your remodel, and as with all things in life, you will usually get what you pay for. If you want the products with finer quality, or more options, or the better quality, the more costly the remodel is going to be.
"...I usually suggest a project budget starting point of 15-20% as this will allow you to select the better quality materials and products that you will invariably want. If this is your "dream home" and you want this to be your "dream kitchen" you can easily shoot right past the 25% end of the rule, but then you are doing this for yourself, it's your dream, and you deserve it now don't you!! If you are remodeling to sell or you are planning on being in the home less than 2 years, I recommend shooting for the 10% end of the rule. By staying around 10% you will still be putting in good quality materials but you will not be spending unnecessarily. And while it is possible to spend less (I help clients do it all the time), if you go too much below the 10% rule, you may then start to devalue the home instead of increasing it's value. (things look cheap for a reason)."
I have to put a serious issue with the other guy's comments.
If a seller came up to me and told me they were going to put 10% of the cost of their home into the kitchen. The first question I would ask is how long are you going to live there? The psoter said if the answer is 2 years then clsoer to the 10% is closer. I say that if the number is less than 2 years do a cosmetic remodel because you are more likely going to get 70 cents on the dollar return on your money. The lower one is on the home price range, the lower that return goes. This requires some elaboration.
If you live in a $300k home and put $30k into the kitchen then learned you had to sell right away. It is very resonable to expect $330k back right away but probaly more like $320k all other things equal. But I will share that if one planned to remodeled the kitchen with the intent to sell on the plannable horizon, I could put you in touch with people who could do it for $12k and we could sell the home for $330k. Sound good to you?
Most people don't know the difference between a "value" remodel or "quality" remodel. To he honest (and this is no disparaging any one here) I have seem the same quality of materials used for both a 15k and 30k remodel. The poster comes form San Ramon CA. I advised they go out to the new construction in the Dougherty Valley, an area where much development is happening, and look at the "quality" materials some builders are putting in those homes with masontie laminate covered drawer bottoms and laminate shelving. I ask would this be a 15k or 30k kitchen? Those builders use high end looking finishes which is what people want. They want nice looking and new.
If one is going to put in a kitchen in the 300k home would anyone really advise they spend 75k?
I would condition these statements by saying a homeowner should take the average cost of the home in their neighborhood then add the cost of the remodel. If that number is meaningfully over the most expensive recent sale in the area, then lower your budget.
I like this advice it though it provides a very generous range. This rule of thumb I would further advise is for owners who are planning on being in their home more than 5 years. Another poster in the kithcen and bath busess elaborated further.
your remodel, and as with all things in life, you will usually get what you pay for. If you want the products with finer quality, or more options, or the better quality, the more costly the remodel is going to be.
"...I usually suggest a project budget starting point of 15-20% as this will allow you to select the better quality materials and products that you will invariably want. If this is your "dream home" and you want this to be your "dream kitchen" you can easily shoot right past the 25% end of the rule, but then you are doing this for yourself, it's your dream, and you deserve it now don't you!! If you are remodeling to sell or you are planning on being in the home less than 2 years, I recommend shooting for the 10% end of the rule. By staying around 10% you will still be putting in good quality materials but you will not be spending unnecessarily. And while it is possible to spend less (I help clients do it all the time), if you go too much below the 10% rule, you may then start to devalue the home instead of increasing it's value. (things look cheap for a reason)."
I have to put a serious issue with the other guy's comments.
If a seller came up to me and told me they were going to put 10% of the cost of their home into the kitchen. The first question I would ask is how long are you going to live there? The psoter said if the answer is 2 years then clsoer to the 10% is closer. I say that if the number is less than 2 years do a cosmetic remodel because you are more likely going to get 70 cents on the dollar return on your money. The lower one is on the home price range, the lower that return goes. This requires some elaboration.
If you live in a $300k home and put $30k into the kitchen then learned you had to sell right away. It is very resonable to expect $330k back right away but probaly more like $320k all other things equal. But I will share that if one planned to remodeled the kitchen with the intent to sell on the plannable horizon, I could put you in touch with people who could do it for $12k and we could sell the home for $330k. Sound good to you?
Most people don't know the difference between a "value" remodel or "quality" remodel. To he honest (and this is no disparaging any one here) I have seem the same quality of materials used for both a 15k and 30k remodel. The poster comes form San Ramon CA. I advised they go out to the new construction in the Dougherty Valley, an area where much development is happening, and look at the "quality" materials some builders are putting in those homes with masontie laminate covered drawer bottoms and laminate shelving. I ask would this be a 15k or 30k kitchen? Those builders use high end looking finishes which is what people want. They want nice looking and new.
If one is going to put in a kitchen in the 300k home would anyone really advise they spend 75k?
I would condition these statements by saying a homeowner should take the average cost of the home in their neighborhood then add the cost of the remodel. If that number is meaningfully over the most expensive recent sale in the area, then lower your budget.
Monday, June 15, 2009
The ABC's of the Real Estate Market
I recently went to a seminar and the presenter had a great way to describe areas in an investment standpoint.
A residential housing market can be broken into 3 parts the "lower end", homes priced under the conforming loan maximum, and the "high end." The high end has two parts. One is the the market that requires leverage to purchase from the conforming lona limit to somehwere in the lo millions.
The lower end can again be broken into 3 parts. Grade A: The areas that had value 3 years ago and will have value again 3 years form now. Grade B : The areas that will improve in the next recovery. Grade C: The bottom and most challenging areas that are currently flooded with foreclosures.
Each area offers a unique opprotunity for different types of buyers. For example, first time home buyers who are interested in appreciation may be advised to purchase in category B areas if they are not financially able to purchase in category A areas since the B areas should improve in the next up cycle.
With regards to investments, this description should hold true as well. The most money would be expected in the category B areas. Category A markets will be tighter and from an investment standpoint will be characterized as good places to park money. Basically a place to preserve capital. The market may go down, but these category A area have historically been the first to recover in prior upswings, currently these markets are under pressure.
Category B areas have for the most part bottomed and should will hold, all other things being equal, being a good place for capital growth in the long term. The lower the price the more this characterization is true. Over the last few years, these homes have fallen further from their highs as a percentage of price and will recover quicker due to the homes being more affordable and in lower price points.
Category C areas are for cash buyers only and only make sense for LONG term holds (like a bond) the appreciation will be slow but the prices on a per square foot basis are generous making rental streams good only when unlevered and price is a factor.
Category A areas are closer to the top of the conforming loan range (629k). Category B and C areas are in the mid and lower price ranges.
In centreal and east Contra Costa County, places like San Ramon, Danville, Walnut Creek, are solid category A properties. Pleasant Hill starts in the lower end A range and moves into the upper end homes. Concord, Martinez and Livermore are solid B categories with category A components. Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood and outlying areas are in the solid C category.
A residential housing market can be broken into 3 parts the "lower end", homes priced under the conforming loan maximum, and the "high end." The high end has two parts. One is the the market that requires leverage to purchase from the conforming lona limit to somehwere in the lo millions.
The lower end can again be broken into 3 parts. Grade A: The areas that had value 3 years ago and will have value again 3 years form now. Grade B : The areas that will improve in the next recovery. Grade C: The bottom and most challenging areas that are currently flooded with foreclosures.
Each area offers a unique opprotunity for different types of buyers. For example, first time home buyers who are interested in appreciation may be advised to purchase in category B areas if they are not financially able to purchase in category A areas since the B areas should improve in the next up cycle.
With regards to investments, this description should hold true as well. The most money would be expected in the category B areas. Category A markets will be tighter and from an investment standpoint will be characterized as good places to park money. Basically a place to preserve capital. The market may go down, but these category A area have historically been the first to recover in prior upswings, currently these markets are under pressure.
Category B areas have for the most part bottomed and should will hold, all other things being equal, being a good place for capital growth in the long term. The lower the price the more this characterization is true. Over the last few years, these homes have fallen further from their highs as a percentage of price and will recover quicker due to the homes being more affordable and in lower price points.
Category C areas are for cash buyers only and only make sense for LONG term holds (like a bond) the appreciation will be slow but the prices on a per square foot basis are generous making rental streams good only when unlevered and price is a factor.
Category A areas are closer to the top of the conforming loan range (629k). Category B and C areas are in the mid and lower price ranges.
In centreal and east Contra Costa County, places like San Ramon, Danville, Walnut Creek, are solid category A properties. Pleasant Hill starts in the lower end A range and moves into the upper end homes. Concord, Martinez and Livermore are solid B categories with category A components. Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood and outlying areas are in the solid C category.
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